Capital One Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Capital One Financial Corp

COFNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryConsumer Finance

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $194.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $119.3B

Enterprise Value $108.1B

Shares Outstanding 613.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Capital One enters the second half of 2026 with improving sequential credit performance, an 8.01% net interest margin, strong loan growth and substantial strategic optionality from the Discover network and Brex. The counterweight is execution risk: second-quarter expenses increased faster than revenue, acquisition and integration costs remained material, and the preliminary CET1 ratio declined sequentially to 13.7%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$214.00

Mean target$256.50

High · most bullish analyst$300.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$214.0023%

Consumer delinquencies and charge-offs reverse their recent improvement while acquisition-related expenses remain elevated. A weaker credit environment, slower integration benefits or further capital-ratio compression would constrain repurchases and reduce confidence in normalized returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$256.5057%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and payment volumes grow moderately while net interest margin remains supportive and consumer credit stays manageable. Discover and Brex broaden the platform, but integration spending and acquisition amortization keep reported efficiency and earnings below their eventual potential.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$300.0020%

Credit remains benign, card purchase volume and payment-network volume continue expanding, and Discover and Brex integration produces revenue and efficiency benefits that outweigh acquisition amortization and integration costs. Sustained margin near the second-quarter level and continued reserve releases would create upside to normalized earnings.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net revenue increased 4% sequentially to $15.85 billion, adjusted diluted EPS reached $5.81, and the provision for credit losses declined to $2.989 billion from $4.068 billion in the first quarter.
The completed Discover and Brex acquisitions add a global payment network and an AI-native business-payments platform; second-quarter Global Payment Network volume was $189.612 billion, up 9% sequentially.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter non-interest expense increased 7% sequentially to $9.043 billion and included $298 million of Discover integration expense, $96 million of Brex integration expense and $494 million of acquisition-amortization expense.
The preliminary CET1 ratio declined from 14.4% at March 31, 2026 to 13.7% at June 30, while consumer-credit sensitivity remains material, including a 4.71% domestic-card net charge-off rate.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.