Capital City Bank Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value $37.45median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $48.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $835.1M Enterprise Value $379.4M Shares Outstanding 17.1M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Capital City Bank Group Inc. (CCBG) represents a highly stable, relationship-focused community banking franchise with a strong footprint in high-growth markets across Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. The bank continues to demonstrate robust profitability, supported by a disciplined credit culture and a resilient net interest margin of 4.24% as of Q1 2026. However, near-term growth is expected to remain modest, with loan demand showing slight sequential declines and nonperforming assets experiencing a minor uptick. Given the neutral consensus among Wall Street analysts and a valuation that aligns with historical averages, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the bank navigates the current interest rate environment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$49.50 Mean target$51.67 High · most bullish analyst$54.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.0015% A prolonged high-interest-rate environment leads to increased deposit competition, forcing the bank to raise deposit rates and compressing the net interest margin below 3.90%. Simultaneously, credit quality deteriorates in the residential and commercial real estate portfolios, leading to higher loan charge-offs and increased provisioning. Base CaseCentral scenario $49.0060% The bank maintains its stable net interest margin above 4.10% and achieves modest loan growth of 2-3% annually. Credit quality remains highly manageable with nonperforming assets staying below 0.40% of total assets. Noninterest expenses remain controlled, and the bank continues its consistent dividend payout of $0.27 per quarter. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.0025% Accelerated economic expansion in the Southeast markets drives stronger-than-expected loan demand, while the bank successfully leverages its wealth management and mortgage banking platforms to boost noninterest income. Disciplined expense management and stable deposit costs lead to positive operating leverage and return on equity exceeding 13%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |