Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRail Transportation Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $72.75median of 6 methods · middle span $64-$93based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $84.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $74.3B Enterprise Value $88.6B Shares Outstanding 879.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CPKC's unique Canada-U.S.-Mexico single-line network, record Canadian grain performance and strong Q2 2026 traffic and revenue growth support a favorable long-term competitive position. Q2 core adjusted EPS increased 13% and operating indicators improved, including higher train speed, lower terminal dwell and better fuel efficiency. The near-term balance is less compelling: the core adjusted operating ratio increased year over year, fuel expense rose sharply, safety frequencies worsened and adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA reached 3.2 times. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.83 Mean target$100.97 High · most bullish analyst$110.69 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0019% North American freight demand weakens, coal and other cyclical traffic remain soft, elevated fuel and labor costs prevent margin recovery, and safety or service disruptions impair network performance. Higher leverage limits financial flexibility and the expected acceleration in volume and earnings does not occur. This scenario assigns a US$75 per-share target. Base CaseCentral scenario $100.9758% Matches the consensus meanTraffic and pricing remain constructive, but operating-ratio improvement is gradual because fuel, labor and integration costs offset part of the network's growth benefit. CPKC delivers steady earnings expansion without a major valuation re-rating. The US$100 per-share target is an internally developed scenario value referenced to the latest issuer-reported NYSE price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0023% Accelerating second-half traffic, continued CP-KCS synergy realization and durable pricing produce stronger earnings conversion. Record grain volumes persist, the transnational network captures additional automotive, intermodal and merchandise traffic, and operating efficiency improves despite higher fuel costs. This scenario assigns a US$115 per-share target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |