Canadian National Railway Co Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRailroads Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $78.03median of 5 methods · middle span $76-$82based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $117.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $70.8B Enterprise Value $91.6B Shares Outstanding 623.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CN entered the second half of 2026 with stronger volume, earnings and cash-flow momentum: second-quarter revenue ton-miles increased 5%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 11%, and first-half free cash flow increased 19%. Management consequently raised its 2026 assumptions to low-single-digit revenue-ton-mile growth and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth. Recent weekly data remain mixed, however: carloads and revenue ton-miles were above the prior year, while car velocity and train speed declined and dwell increased. The July Repentigny derailment also highlights execution and infrastructure-control risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$114.70 Mean target$140.13 High · most bullish analyst$153.27 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $114.7020% Macroeconomic or trade weakness causes revenue ton-miles to stagnate, while slower velocity, higher dwell, fuel pressure or additional infrastructure incidents raise costs. Under this scenario, adjusted EPS growth falls below management's outlook and operating efficiency deteriorates despite the lower 2026 capital program. Base CaseCentral scenario $140.1355% Matches the consensus meanRevenue ton-miles grow at a low-single-digit rate and adjusted diluted EPS grows in the mid- to high-single-digit range, broadly matching CN's raised 2026 outlook. Volume growth and cash generation are partly offset by an adjusted operating ratio that was 62.2% in the second quarter and by mixed August network metrics. Bull CaseUpside scenario $153.2725% Sustained grain, energy and broader freight demand keeps revenue ton-miles above management's raised low-single-digit growth assumption. Continued productivity and disciplined capital spending convert the additional workload into adjusted EPS growth above the current mid- to high-single-digit outlook. June's record Western Canadian grain movement and May's record propane corridor shipments demonstrate available commercial upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |