Cameco Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryCoal & Consumable Fuels Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $63.73median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$156based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $85.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $37.3B Shares Outstanding 435.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Dec 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cameco offers scarce, integrated exposure to uranium, conversion services, and Westinghouse at a time when long-term uranium pricing and nuclear-energy demand remain supportive. The operating outlook is intact, with 2026 attributable uranium production guidance unchanged at 19.5-21.5 million pounds and more than 28 million pounds of average annual contracted deliveries over 2026-2030. However, the NYSE share price displayed by Cameco was US$100.01, while first-half results showed lower Westinghouse equity earnings and recent mine disruptions highlighted execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.37 Mean target$130.17 High · most bullish analyst$176.94 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $85.3718% Operational disruptions cause production to fall below guidance, uranium prices retreat enough to reduce contracting urgency, and Westinghouse earnings remain volatile without sufficient new-project conversion. The target is an analytical downside scenario rather than a company or analyst-consensus forecast. Base CaseCentral scenario $130.1756% Matches the consensus meanCameco delivers within its unchanged 2026 production range, continues layering market-related contracts onto its portfolio, and Westinghouse contributes uneven but positive strategic value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $176.9426% Long-term uranium pricing remains at or above the July 2026 level, utilities accelerate contracting against substantial uncovered requirements, Cameco meets or exceeds production guidance, and Westinghouse converts its pipeline of up to 91 AP1000 opportunities into material orders. The target represents an analytical upside scenario rather than a company or analyst-consensus forecast. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |