Camden Property Trust Dossier - Source-backed chat

Camden Property Trust

CPTNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Residential

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $107.80median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $96.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $11.2B

Enterprise Value $16B

Shares Outstanding 103.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Camden combines resilient 95.7% occupancy, positive renewal pricing and maintained 2026 Core FFO midpoint guidance with continued pressure on new leases and same-property NOI. The $1.625 billion California portfolio sale materially reshapes the portfolio and provides approximately $0.9 billion for debt repayment, but execution must be monitored because quarter-end leverage was elevated before those proceeds were applied.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$105.00

Mean target$117.42

High · most bullish analyst$132.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0023%

New-lease pricing deteriorates beyond the 2Q26 level, expenses continue to outpace revenue, same-property NOI falls below guidance, and acquisition or development funding prevents the expected post-disposition leverage improvement.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$117.4258%

Matches the consensus mean

Occupancy remains stable, renewal increases partly offset negative new-lease pricing, and same-property NOI stays within management's 2026 range. Core FFO remains near the maintained $6.75 midpoint while the company completes its portfolio rotation and applies disposition proceeds to debt.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$132.0019%

Occupancy remains near the 2Q26 level, blended lease pricing turns positive, development lease-up and recent acquisitions add NOI, and California-sale proceeds reduce leverage as planned. These developments would improve confidence that current supply pressure is cyclical rather than structural.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter same-property occupancy was 95.7%, while effective renewal rates increased 2.8%.
The $1.625 billion California portfolio sale provides substantial capital recycling, with approximately $0.9 billion designated for revolver and commercial-paper repayment.
Management maintained its 2026 Core FFO midpoint at $6.75 per diluted share despite portfolio changes and operating pressure.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter effective new-lease rates declined 3.3%, and effective blended lease rates declined 0.2%.
Second-quarter same-property NOI excluding California declined 1.4%, as expense growth exceeded revenue growth.
Quarter-end net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre was 5.3 times before the subsequent application of California-sale proceeds, and Camden also recorded a $53 million litigation settlement obligation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.