Camden National Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Camden National Corp

CACNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $56.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $953.3M

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 17M diluted

Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Camden National Corp (CAC) is a resilient, high-quality community banking franchise operating in Northern New England. Following its successful integration of Northway Financial, the bank has demonstrated strong asset quality, disciplined expense management, and robust capital rebuilding. However, with the stock trading near fair value and facing a highly competitive deposit landscape, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market digests recent gains.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$59.50

High · most bullish analyst$64.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects potential margin compression from persistent deposit competition, a deterioration in regional economic conditions leading to higher nonperforming loans, and failure to sustain targeted operating efficiencies.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes stable loan balances, continued realization of cost synergies from the Northway acquisition, and core net interest margin stabilization around 2.90% to 2.95%. Credit quality is expected to remain strong with net charge-offs staying below 0.10%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Camden National's strategic acquisition of Northway Financial, Inc. (completed in Q1 2025) significantly expands its footprint in Northern New England, creating a premier regional bank with approximately $7.0 billion in assets. The integration is driving substantial cost synergies, expanding core net interest margins, and accelerating earnings accretion (expected to be 32.7% accretive to 2026 EPS). Additionally, the bank maintains strong asset quality, robust capital ratios well above regulatory 'well-capitalized' thresholds, and a stable dividend yield supported by growing earnings.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong asset quality with nonperforming loans at just 0.22% of total loans.
Successful integration of Northway Financial, expanding the franchise footprint into high-growth New Hampshire markets.
Disciplined expense management with an efficiency ratio targeted in the mid-50% range.
Robust capital position with a CET1 ratio of 10.20% supporting consistent shareholder returns.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competition for deposits in the New England region putting pressure on funding costs.
Macroeconomic slowdown in Northern New England impacting loan demand and credit quality.
Interest rate volatility affecting net interest margin expansion and mortgage origination volumes.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Core net interest margin falling below 2.80% due to aggressive deposit pricing.
A sharp rise in nonperforming loans exceeding 0.50% of total loans.
Failure to maintain the efficiency ratio below 60%

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.