Calidi Biotherapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Calidi Biotherapeutics Inc

CLDINYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.35

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $2.8M

Enterprise Value −$2.2M

Shares Outstanding 2.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Calidi Biotherapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering targeted genetic medicines using its proprietary RedTail systemic virotherapy platform. While preclinical data for its lead candidate, CLD-401, is promising and has received positive pre-IND feedback from the FDA, the company faces severe capital constraints. With only $6.8 million in cash as of Q1 2026 and a substantial net loss, Calidi's ability to continue as a going concern is highly dependent on securing additional financing before initiating its planned Phase 1 clinical trials in early 2027. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended until the company secures a longer cash runway.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Calidi experiences regulatory or manufacturing delays that push the CLD-401 IND filing into late 2027 or beyond. Unable to secure additional capital or strategic partnerships under favorable terms, the company faces severe liquidity constraints, leading to substantial shareholder dilution or a restructuring event.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Calidi successfully files its IND for CLD-401 by the end of 2026 and initiates its Phase 1 clinical trial in early 2027. The company manages to raise incremental capital through equity offerings or strategic partnerships, mitigating immediate going concern risks, though dilution remains high.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Calidi successfully initiates Phase 1 trials for CLD-401 in early 2027 and reports strong safety and efficacy signals by mid-2027. This clinical validation of the RedTail platform triggers a lucrative licensing deal or strategic partnership with a major pharmaceutical company, securing non-dilutive funding and driving significant valuation upside.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Innovative RedTail platform designed to shield oncolytic viruses from immune clearance, enabling systemic delivery to metastatic sites.
Positive pre-IND regulatory feedback from the FDA providing alignment on preclinical plans and clinical strategy for lead candidate CLD-401.
Strategic manufacturing partnership with Matica Bio and clinical trial partnership with Avance Clinical to accelerate development.

Key Investment Risks

Severe financial constraints with substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.
High risk of equity dilution due to the urgent need for capital to fund upcoming clinical trials.
Clinical development risk inherent to early-stage biotechnology platforms and oncolytic virotherapies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Delay in the IND submission for CLD-401 beyond the end of 2026.
Inability to secure additional funding, leading to insolvency or suspension of operations.
Unfavorable preclinical safety or efficacy data that halts the development of the RedTail platform.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.