Caleres Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Caleres Inc

CALNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $12.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $424.4M

Enterprise Value $721M

Shares Outstanding 32.7M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Caleres is executing a successful 'build-back' year in fiscal 2026, characterized by strong operational momentum in its Brand Portfolio segment and aggressive tariff mitigation efforts. While Famous Footwear faces near-term macroeconomic headwinds and softer consumer discretionary spending, the integration of Stuart Weitzman and robust gross margin expansion (up 200 basis points in Q1 2026 to 47.3%) support a meaningful earnings recovery. Trading at a highly attractive forward P/E multiple, Caleres offers a compelling risk-reward profile as profitability rebuilds.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$17.00

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$14.0015%

Persistent inflation and high interest rates further depress consumer discretionary spending, causing Famous Footwear comparable sales to decline mid-single digits. Tariff mitigation efforts are offset by renewed supply chain disruptions, and high leverage under the revolving credit facility pressures net margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$17.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

Caleres achieves its guided full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.65 (midpoint of $1.53) on low-to-mid-single-digit net sales growth. Brand Portfolio continues to lead growth, offsetting flat to low-single-digit declines at Famous Footwear. Gross margins expand by 220 to 260 basis points.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.0025%

Brand Portfolio organic growth accelerates, Stuart Weitzman achieves profitability ahead of schedule, and Famous Footwear comparable sales turn positive driven by the 'elevate-and-edit' strategy and FLAIR store remodels. Favorable tariff rates and successful supply chain optimization drive gross margins above 48%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong Brand Portfolio momentum, with Q1 2026 sales up 20.6% (5.8% organic growth excluding Stuart Weitzman).
Significant gross margin expansion, driven by favorable product mix and successful tariff mitigation actions.
Successful integration of Stuart Weitzman, which is on track to reach breakeven profitability in FY2026.

Key Investment Risks

Macroeconomic sensitivity of the Famous Footwear retail segment to shifts in consumer discretionary spending.
Increased financial leverage, with borrowings under the revolving credit facility rising to $347.5 million as of Q1 2026.
Geopolitical and trade policy risks, particularly potential shifts in tariffs on footwear sourced from Vietnam and China.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Famous Footwear comparable store sales declining by more than 5% for consecutive quarters.
Consolidated gross margin expansion falling below 150 basis points for the full year.
Failure of Stuart Weitzman to reach breakeven profitability by the end of fiscal 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.