Caledonia Mining Corp Plc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $14.93median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$23based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $23.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $459.6M Enterprise Value $463.6M Shares Outstanding 19.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Caledonia Mining is transitioning from a single-asset operator to a multi-asset mid-tier gold producer in Zimbabwe. While near-term production at its flagship Blanket Mine faced grade-related headwinds in Q1 2026, robust gold prices have cushioned financial performance, driving strong cash generation. The company's long-term growth is anchored by the massive Bilboes Sulphide Project, which is poised to add 200,000 ounces per year starting in 2029. With funding risks partially de-risked via convertible notes and hedging, the market underappreciates Caledonia's long-term intrinsic value, presenting a compelling risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.69 Mean target$42.73 High · most bullish analyst$47.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent operational delays or equipment issues at Blanket Mine prevent grade recovery, leading to a guidance miss. Securing the remaining $150 million interim facility for Bilboes is delayed, pushing back the construction timeline, while a sharp correction in gold prices squeezes operating margins. Base CaseCentral scenario Blanket Mine maintains stable production within its 72,000 to 76,500-ounce guidance range for 2026, with grades recovering in the second half of the year. Bilboes development progresses on schedule with the interim funding secured by mid-2026, and gold prices remain supportive above historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario Clearer upside driven by strong operating leverage to gold prices, robust free cash flow generation ($62.1M in FY2025), and a highly credible Bilboes project that could transform production scale to 200,000 oz/year at a low AISC of $1,061/oz. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |