CalciMedica Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CalciMedica Inc

CALCNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $11.3M

Enterprise Value −$650.3K

Shares Outstanding 6.8M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CalciMedica is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel calcium release-activated calcium (CRAC) channel inhibition therapies (such as its lead candidate Auxora) for serious acute and chronic inflammatory, immunologic, and cardiopulmonary diseases. While the company has demonstrated strong clinical efficacy data for Auxora in acute pancreatitis (AP) with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in its Phase 2b CARPO trial, it recently faced a major clinical setback with the discontinuation of its Phase 2 KOURAGE trial in acute kidney injury (AKI) due to a mortality imbalance. Although subsequent reviews found no drug-related toxicity, the trial's termination has shifted the company's near-term focus entirely to its AP program. CalciMedica is currently awaiting critical FDA feedback on the design of its pivotal program in AP and future development in AKI. Financially, the company is in a precarious position with only $8.2 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, which is expected to fund operations only into the fourth quarter of 2026. Given the imminent need for substantial dilutive or non-dilutive financing to launch a costly pivotal trial, combined with Nasdaq non-compliance notices regarding its low stock price and market capitalization, a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted until regulatory pathways are finalized and the balance sheet is recapitalized.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.00

Mean target$10.50

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

FDA feedback on the AP pivotal program requires a larger, more expensive, or longer trial design than anticipated, increasing the company's capital requirements. CalciMedica struggles to raise capital on favorable terms, resulting in severe shareholder dilution or forcing a delay in initiating the pivotal trial. The company fails to regain compliance with Nasdaq listing standards by September 2026, leading to a potential delisting to the OTC market, which severely limits liquidity and institutional investor interest.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The FDA provides constructive feedback on the pivotal program for Auxora in acute pancreatitis (AP) in mid-2026, allowing CalciMedica to finalize a clear, late-stage clinical trial design. The company successfully secures additional capital (via equity, debt, or a strategic partnership) to extend its cash runway beyond Q4 2026 and initiate the pivotal trial. Preclinical work for CM5480 continues on track for a 2027 IND submission. The stock regains compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case relies on positive FDA feedback and successful initiation of the pivotal program for Auxora in acute pancreatitis (AP), alongside a potential revival of the AKI program if the FDA accepts a modified trial design that addresses the baseline disease severity imbalances without requiring a completely new Phase 2 trial.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class therapeutic potential: Auxora targets CRAC channels to modulate immune responses and protect against tissue cell injury, representing a novel mechanism of action for acute inflammatory diseases.
Strong Phase 2b CARPO data: The trial demonstrated dose-dependent improvements in clinical endpoints and a 100% reduction in new-onset severe respiratory failure in the high-dose Auxora group compared to placebo in patients with AP and SIRS.
Absence of drug-related toxicity: Comprehensive internal and external reviews of the discontinued KOURAGE trial data confirmed that the observed mortality imbalance was likely due to baseline patient heterogeneity rather than drug-related toxicity, preserving the safety profile of Auxora.
Pipeline diversification: The company is advancing CM5480, an oral CRAC inhibitor, as a potential first-in-class therapy for pulmonary arterial hypertension, with an IND filing targeted for 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Severe cash runway constraints: With only $8.2 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, the company's runway extends only into Q4 2026, necessitating immediate and potentially highly dilutive capital raises.
Regulatory and trial design uncertainty: The initiation of the pivotal program in AP and any future trials in AKI are entirely dependent on pending FDA feedback, which could impose costly or complex requirements.
Nasdaq delisting risk: The company received non-compliance notices in March 2026 for failing to maintain a minimum bid price of $1.00 and a minimum market value of listed securities of $35,000,000, with deadlines to regain compliance in September 2026.
Clinical execution risk: Developing therapies for critically ill populations in acute care settings is highly complex and prone to patient heterogeneity, as evidenced by the KOURAGE trial setback.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to secure additional financing before Q4 2026, leading to a severe liquidity crisis or going-concern issues.
Unfavorable FDA feedback on the AP pivotal program that demands unfeasible trial sizes or endpoints.
Delisting from the Nasdaq Capital Market due to failure to regain compliance with listing requirements by September 2026.
Safety signals or negative clinical outcomes in future trials of Auxora or preclinical studies of CM5480.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.