Cae Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $21.38median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$42based on filings through 31 Mar 2025 Market Price $24.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.7B Shares Outstanding 319.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CAE Inc. is executing a comprehensive multi-year transformation plan to optimize its capital base, streamline its operating model, and rationalize its Civil training network. While FY2027 is positioned as a transitional 'reset' year with flat-to-slightly-down Civil revenues and elevated restructuring costs, the company's strong market moat in flight simulation and robust momentum in its Defense segment (which recently achieved double-digit operating margins) backstop its long-term recovery. Deleveraging has progressed ahead of schedule, with leverage already reduced to 2.29x net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA, positioning the company to deliver strong cumulative free cash flow conversion and substantial margin expansion toward its FY2030 targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.57 Mean target$33.29 High · most bullish analyst$34.01 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.57 Persistent aircraft delivery delays and macroeconomic headwinds continue to depress commercial pilot training demand. Restructuring costs exceed guided ranges, and integration of the company's ERP systems experiences delays, leading to stranded corporate costs and margin compression below guided levels. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.29 Matches the consensus meanCAE successfully executes its network rationalization, removing 10% of commercial simulators and closing underperforming centers. Consolidated revenues grow at a low single-digit rate in FY2027, with adjusted segment operating margins landing in the guided 14.6%–15.1% range. Free cash flow conversion remains healthy at 85%–95%, and leverage is maintained near the 2.5x target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.01 The Civil aviation training market recovers faster than expected as aircraft delivery delays ease, driving high utilization of the remaining optimized simulator fleet. Simultaneously, global defense spending tailwinds accelerate Defense segment revenue growth beyond mid-single digits, and transformation cost synergies are realized ahead of schedule, driving rapid margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |