Cadre Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $30.18median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$36based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 45.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cadre Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CDRE) is a leading global manufacturer and distributor of safety and survivability equipment for first responders, federal agencies, and military personnel. Despite near-term headwinds in its nuclear safety platform and distribution channels, the company's core business remains highly resilient, supported by a record orders backlog of $355 million and strong secular tailwinds in global defense and public safety spending. Recent strategic acquisitions, including TYR Tactical and Alien Gear Holsters, expand Cadre's product portfolio and international footprint, positioning the company for robust long-term growth and margin expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$43.00 Mean target$47.50 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $43.0020% Persistent operational headwinds, elevated input costs, and unfavorable product mix continue to compress gross margins. Integration delays or higher-than-expected transaction expenses from recent acquisitions weigh on profitability. Prolonged delays in nuclear safety projects and soft agency demand for hard goods in the distribution segment lead to a downward revision of full-year guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $47.5050% Matches the consensus meanCadre successfully executes its core safety equipment business, converting its record $355 million backlog into steady revenue. The company achieves its FY2026 guidance of $736 million to $758 million in net sales and $136 million to $141 million in adjusted EBITDA. Margins normalize as input costs stabilize and product mix improves, supported by steady municipal and federal public safety budgets. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.0030% Accelerated integration of TYR Tactical and Alien Gear Holsters drives significant revenue synergies and margin expansion. Global defense budgets rise faster than expected, leading to large-scale contract wins similar to the FBI ballistic panel contract. The nuclear safety platform recovers rapidly as plutonium down-blending projects resume schedule, pushing 2026 net sales and adjusted EBITDA to the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |