Cadiz Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cadiz Inc

CDZINASDAQ

SectorUtilities

IndustryWater Utilities

Beta (adjusted)1.59

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $3.70Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $313.3M

Enterprise Value $395M

Shares Outstanding 84.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cadiz Inc. is transitioning from a speculative land and agricultural holding company into an integrated water solutions provider in Southern California. The company possesses a massive physical moat, including 2.5 million acre-feet of water supply and 1 million acre-feet of groundwater storage capacity. However, the investment thesis is highly binary and constrained by severe near-term liquidity pressures. While the company has secured key purchase agreements and has been invited to apply for a $194 million federal WIFIA loan, it faces a critical $60.6 million senior debt maturity on June 30, 2027, and is burning cash rapidly. Regulatory hurdles, particularly California's Senate Bill 307 and pipeline right-of-way disputes, continue to pose existential execution risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$10.67

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Regulatory blockades, environmental litigation, or failure to secure the WIFIA loan prevent pipeline construction. The company is unable to refinance its $60.6 million senior debt before the June 30, 2027 maturity, leading to insolvency, restructuring, or catastrophic equity dilution that wipes out retail shareholders.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully secures the $194 million WIFIA loan and completes the non-binding $400 million private equity commitment for its MWI joint venture. This capital allows Cadiz to refinance its $60.6 million senior debt maturing in June 2027 and complete construction of the Northern Pipeline by late 2026/early 2027, initiating initial water deliveries and unlocking contracted cash flows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Cadiz Inc. owns a massive self-recharging aquifer in Southern California containing 17 to 34 million acre-feet of groundwater in storage (on par with Lake Mead). The bull case centers on converting this pre-revenue water project into a highly valuable, contracted infrastructure asset. Key catalysts include the conversion of its 220-mile Northern Pipeline from natural gas to water conveyance (which received final BLM right-of-way approval in July 2026), securing low-interest federal funding (such as the EPA's $194 million WIFIA loan allocation), and establishing long-term water supply and storage contracts that could generate significant recurring cash flows by 2028.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unreplicable physical asset base consisting of 2.5 million acre-feet of water supply and 1 million acre-feet of storage capacity in water-scarce Southern California.
Secured 40-year purchase agreements totaling 21,275 acre-feet per year (AFY) with public water systems, establishing a clear path to long-term contracted utility cash flows.
Strategic shift supported by the EPA's invitation to apply for up to $194 million in low-cost WIFIA federal loan funding.

Key Investment Risks

Severe near-term liquidity risk with only $16.5 million in cash as of early 2026 against a high quarterly cash burn rate.
Existential debt wall with $60.6 million in senior secured debt maturing on June 30, 2027.
Intense regulatory and political opposition in California, including potential pipeline blockades under Senate Bill 307.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Denial or failure to secure the $194 million WIFIA loan from the EPA.
Failure to refinance or extend the $60.6 million senior debt maturity prior to June 30, 2027.
Adverse court rulings or state regulatory decisions that permanently halt pipeline construction or water conveyance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.