Cadeler AS ADR Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $48.84median of 5 methods · middle span $25-$61based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $21.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 128% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+128%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $3B Shares Outstanding 96.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cadeler A/S is exceptionally positioned as a pure-play global leader in the offshore wind turbine transport and installation market. Following its transformational merger with Eneti and aggressive fleet expansion, the company operates the industry's largest and most modern fleet of jack-up vessels. This scale, combined with a massive EUR 2.7 billion order backlog, provides high revenue visibility. While heavy capital expenditures have temporarily pressured free cash flows and increased leverage, peak capex is rolling off, setting the stage for a powerful transition to positive free cash flow and margin expansion driven by a structural vessel supply-demand imbalance post-2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$34.00 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.00 Macroeconomic headwinds, supply chain bottlenecks, or political shifts lead to delays or cancellations of major offshore wind projects. Vessel utilisation drops due to project timing gaps, while high fixed operating costs and elevated interest expenses on its EUR 1.59 billion debt load compress net margins and delay the transition to positive free cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $34.00 Matches the consensus meanCadeler successfully integrates its newly delivered vessels and maintains steady fleet utilisation in line with historical averages. The company executes on its EUR 2.7 billion backlog, achieving its full-year 2026 guidance of EUR 854 million to EUR 944 million in revenue and EUR 420 million to EUR 510 million in EBITDA, with leverage gradually declining as capital expenditures normalise. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.58 Accelerated global offshore wind deployment and a severe shortage of high-specification vessels capable of installing next-generation 15MW+ turbines drive day rates significantly higher. Cadeler achieves near-maximum fleet utilisation (90%+) across its expanded fleet of 11 vessels, leading to rapid deleveraging and substantial free cash flow generation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |