Caci International Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)0.70 Intrinsic Value $477.55median of 6 methods · middle span $429-$1,239based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $627.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.9B Enterprise Value $18.6B Shares Outstanding 22.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CACI enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal 2026 revenue increased 10.9%, organic revenue increased 7.2%, EBITDA margin expanded to 12.3%, free cash flow increased 66.2%, and funded backlog increased 28.6%. Management's fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $10.65-$10.85 billion of revenue, adjusted diluted EPS of $32.96-$33.86, and at least $900 million of free cash flow. These strengths are balanced by a recent share price of $631.51, modest 1.9% total-backlog growth, a fourth-quarter book-to-bill below 1.0, dependence on federal customers, and execution and integration requirements following the $2.6 billion ARKA acquisition. The risk-reward profile therefore supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$550.00 Mean target$717.43 High · most bullish analyst$892.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $550.0020% Award timing weakens, total backlog contracts, or appropriations and procurement delays slow conversion into revenue. ARKA integration costs, higher interest expense, or weaker working-capital conversion cause fiscal 2027 free cash flow to fall below $900 million. The scenario target reflects weaker earnings visibility and reduced confidence in the expected growth and cash-flow trajectory. Base CaseCentral scenario $717.4355% Matches the consensus meanCACI delivers within fiscal 2027 guidance, with revenue of $10.65-$10.85 billion, adjusted diluted EPS of $32.96-$33.86, and free cash flow of at least $900 million. Funded backlog supports near-term visibility, while slower total-backlog growth and ARKA integration limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $892.0025% CACI exceeds the upper end of fiscal 2027 guidance as high-demand technology programs, ARKA capabilities, counter-unmanned systems, electronic warfare, space, and secure digital modernization produce stronger awards and organic growth. Continued margin discipline and working-capital execution drive free cash flow above the company's $900 million floor. The scenario target reflects material upside from sustained double-digit growth and stronger backlog replenishment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |