Cable One Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryCable & Satellite Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $10.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $58.8M Enterprise Value $2.9B Shares Outstanding 5.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date1 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Feb 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cable One (operating under the Sparklight brand) is transitioning from a legacy cable provider to a pure-play connectivity operator. While the company maintains industry-leading Adjusted EBITDA margins above 50%, it faces severe headwinds from Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and fiber overbuilders in its historically protected rural and mid-sized markets. The upcoming full acquisition of Mega Broadband Investments (MBI) in late 2026 will expand its footprint but significantly increase its debt load. A 'Hold' recommendation is warranted as the market waits to see if new CEO Jim Holanda can stabilize subscriber losses through Sparklight Mobile bundling and disciplined fiber upgrades. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$69.75 High · most bullish analyst$111.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0020% The bear case is triggered by accelerated broadband subscriber losses due to aggressive pricing from telecom overbuilders and BEAD-funded fiber projects. If Cable One is forced to cut prices to defend market share, its high-margin profile will erode. Combined with the high leverage from the MBI acquisition, declining EBITDA could severely compress equity value. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0055% The base case assumes that competitive pressures from FWA and fiber overbuilders persist, leading to flat to slightly declining top-line revenues. However, Cable One's margin-first discipline and cost-control measures allow it to sustain Adjusted EBITDA margins in the 51-53% range. Free cash flow remains sufficient to service its elevated post-MBI debt load, but equity valuation remains range-bound. Bull CaseUpside scenario $111.0025% The bull case relies on successful execution of the HFC-to-fiber migration, stabilizing residential broadband subscriber counts, and leveraging the Sparklight Mobile rollout to increase customer lifetime value and reduce churn. Furthermore, the full integration of MBI is expected to unlock significant operational synergies and expand the high-margin business data segment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |