C3.ai Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.73 Intrinsic Value $20.69median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $11.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 86% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+86%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $1.7B Shares Outstanding 160.1M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary C3.ai is undergoing a major structural reset following a highly disappointing fiscal year 2026, marked by poor sales execution, leadership transitions, and declining revenues. Founder Thomas M. Siebel has resumed the CEO role, implementing a comprehensive turnaround plan that includes a 35% headcount reduction to lower operating costs. While Siebel's personal purchase of 6.17 million shares demonstrates strong insider alignment and the company maintains a solid cash cushion of $673 million, near-term growth remains highly pressured. A 'Hold' rating is recommended until there is clear evidence of revenue stabilization and progress toward non-GAAP operating profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$8.82 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.0020% Sales execution issues persist despite the leadership reset, causing revenues to fall below the guided FY27 floor of $210 million. High cost-intensity of delivering enterprise AI solutions continues to depress gross margins, and free cash flow remains heavily negative, rapidly eroding the company's cash reserves. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.8255% Matches the consensus meanC3.ai slowly stabilizes its business model, with FY27 revenues landing within the guided range of $210M–$240M. Operating losses narrow gradually as restructuring benefits materialize in the second half of FY27. The stock trades in a range-bound manner, reflecting persistent market skepticism regarding long-term growth and economics. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.0025% The restructured sales organization under Thomas Siebel successfully accelerates enterprise AI deployments. Cost-cutting measures fully realize $135 million in annualized savings, driving the company toward non-GAAP operating breakeven faster than expected. Increased adoption of the C3 Agentic AI Platform and Generative AI suites drives a sharp rebound in subscription revenues. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |