Byline Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Byline Bancorp Inc

BYNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $37.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $1.7B

Shares Outstanding 45.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Byline Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE: BY) represents a high-quality regional banking franchise with a dominant local market position in the Chicago and Milwaukee metropolitan areas. As the leading SBA 7(a) lender in Illinois, Byline possesses a unique, high-margin fee generation engine that complements its robust core commercial banking operations. The bank's strong profitability is supported by a stable net interest margin (NIM) of 4.34% and an exceptional efficiency ratio of 49.78%. With solid capital building (CET1 at 12.5%) and a proven track record of disciplined expense control, Byline is well-positioned to deliver consistent shareholder returns and navigate macroeconomic volatility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.00

Mean target$43.20

High · most bullish analyst$46.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$40.0020%

A prolonged high-interest-rate environment or severe economic downturn in the Midwest leads to asset quality deterioration, particularly in the commercial real estate or conventional loan portfolios. Slower loan growth and compressed secondary market premiums for SBA loans drag down non-interest income, while rising funding costs compress the net interest margin below 4.10%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$43.2050%

Matches the consensus mean

Byline maintains a stable NIM in the 4.30%-4.35% range, supported by disciplined deposit pricing and steady commercial loan demand. SBA GOS revenue grows moderately at around 10% year-over-year. Credit quality remains stable with annualized net charge-offs well-controlled below 0.35%. The bank continues its capital return program through steady share repurchases and quarterly dividends.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$46.0030%

SBA secondary market premiums recover faster than expected alongside interest rate cuts, driving double-digit growth in SBA GOS revenue. Core deposit gathering remains highly resilient, improving the net loan-to-deposit ratio and supporting higher-than-anticipated loan growth. Operational efficiencies from recent digital banking upgrades and the integration of First Security Bancorp accelerate, pushing the efficiency ratio below 48%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant local market position as the #1 SBA 7(a) lender in Illinois for 16 consecutive years, providing a highly profitable fee-income stream.
Superior profitability metrics, highlighted by a stable net interest margin of 4.34% and an efficiency ratio of 49.78% as of Q1 2026.
Strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.5% and tangible book value per share growing to $23.79, supporting active capital return via buybacks and dividends.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations which can compress loan yields and increase deposit funding costs.
Concentration of credit risk in the Chicago and Milwaukee commercial real estate and small business sectors.
Potential volatility in non-interest income due to fluctuations in SBA loan sale volumes and secondary market premiums.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in the net interest margin below 4.10%.
A significant spike in non-performing loans (NPLs) or net charge-offs exceeding 0.50% of average loans.
A material drop in SBA loan sales or secondary market premiums that severely impacts non-interest fee income.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.