BWX Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

BWX Technologies Inc

BWXTNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $126.34median of 6 methods · middle span $92-$129based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $137.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.6B

Enterprise Value $14B

Shares Outstanding 92M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

BWXT entered the second half of 2026 with approximately USD 8.398 billion of backlog and raised full-year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow. The completed PCG acquisition expands domestic commercial-nuclear manufacturing capacity, while the Janus selection provides a potential path to deployment of BWXT's BANR microreactor. These positives are balanced by execution demands across a large backlog, PCG integration, the pending medical-business divestiture and long-duration regulatory and deployment schedules.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$190.00

Mean target$234.45

High · most bullish analyst$290.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$190.0020%

Contract timing, funding, labor, supply-chain or integration pressure causes results to fall below raised guidance; backlog declines; the medical divestiture is delayed; or regulatory and contracting milestones for enrichment and BANR deployment slip.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$234.4556%

Matches the consensus mean

BWXT delivers within its raised 2026 guidance ranges, maintains a substantial backlog, integrates PCG with manageable disruption and completes the medical-business sale by year-end. Advanced-nuclear programs progress through staged development without becoming a major near-term earnings contributor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$290.0024%

BWXT executes near the upper end of 2026 guidance, converts its large backlog without material delays, integrates PCG successfully and turns the Janus selection and other advanced-nuclear programs into funded production work.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Backlog totaled USD 8.398081 billion at June 30, 2026, supporting multi-year revenue visibility.
Management raised 2026 guidance to approximately USD 3.8 billion of revenue, USD 662 million-672 million of adjusted EBITDA, USD 4.70-4.80 of non-GAAP EPS and USD 345 million-360 million of free cash flow.
The completed PCG acquisition added more than 500,000 square feet of U.S. heavy-manufacturing capacity and over 450 employees.
The U.S. Army selected BWXT's 20-megawatt-electric BANR technology for initial deployment at Fort Campbell under the Janus program.

Key Investment Risks

Government contracts remain exposed to funding decisions, modification, termination and performance delays.
PCG integration could be affected by demand changes, supply-chain constraints, labor availability or cost pressure.
The medical-business sale remains subject to regulatory approvals, closing conditions and potential business disruption.
The planned enrichment facility and BANR deployment require lengthy licensing, contracting, construction and execution milestones.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.