Business First Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $30.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $991.5M Enterprise Value $994M Shares Outstanding 32.8M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) represents a compelling regional banking play in the Gulf South and Texas markets. The bank has successfully expanded its footprint through disciplined acquisitions, most recently completing the integration of Progressive Bank on January 1, 2026, which added $774 million in assets and significantly strengthened its North Louisiana presence. Despite near-term headwinds from loan paydowns and a rise in nonperforming loans, BFST maintains robust core profitability with a Core ROAA of 1.10% and a Core ROACE of 10.57% as of Q1 2026. The bank's strategic focus on daily execution, system optimization, and selective hiring of producers in high-growth Texas markets (such as Houston) positions it well to achieve its target of 1.20% ROAA by the end of 2026. Trading at attractive valuation multiples relative to its historical averages and regional peers, BFST offers a favorable risk-reward profile with solid capital support from its recent $85 million subordinated notes placement. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.50 Mean target$34.70 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration challenges with Progressive Bank lead to higher-than-expected operating expenses. Loan paydowns continue to outpace new loan production, resulting in flat or negative loan growth. Credit quality deteriorates further, with nonperforming loans rising above 2.00%, requiring elevated loan loss provisions that compress net income and delay the achievement of the 1.20% ROAA target. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank successfully integrates Progressive Bank, achieving projected cost synergies and maintaining a stable net interest margin. Selective hiring in Houston offsets loan paydowns, leading to mid-single-digit organic loan growth. Asset quality stabilizes with nonperforming loans remaining within acceptable community banking ranges. The bank achieves its target of 1.20% ROAA by the end of 2026, driving the stock toward the consensus analyst price target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |