Bunge Global SA Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFarm Products Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $89.36median of 5 methods · middle span $45-$90based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $106.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.5B Enterprise Value $31B Shares Outstanding 192.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bunge entered the second half of 2026 with improving oilseed-processing conditions, a larger and more balanced global platform following the Viterra combination, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to $9.25-$9.75. The longer-term case is supported by management's approximately $13 mid-cycle EPS baseline, its objective of at least $15 by 2030, and a capital-allocation framework targeting a minimum 50% return of discretionary cash flow. These positives are balanced by integration execution, substantial capital and interest requirements, exposure to volatile agricultural margins. The Hold recommendation therefore reflects favorable operating momentum but insufficient primary-source evidence for a market-based upside conclusion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$116.00 Mean target$141.22 High · most bullish analyst$150.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $116.0023% Processing margins normalize sharply, adverse weather or trade-policy changes reduce merchandising opportunities, and Viterra integration benefits arrive more slowly while capital and interest requirements remain elevated. The target applies an analytical multiple of approximately nine times the lower end of Bunge's current 2026 adjusted EPS outlook. Base CaseCentral scenario $141.2258% Matches the consensus meanBunge delivers within its $9.25-$9.75 2026 adjusted EPS outlook and progresses toward its approximately $13 mid-cycle EPS baseline while integration costs and higher financing requirements temper near-term rerating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $150.0019% Strong soybean and softseed processing conditions persist, the expanded Viterra platform captures commercial and operating benefits faster than expected, and disciplined repurchases enhance per-share earnings. Applying an analytical 11-times multiple to management's at-least-$15 2030 EPS baseline supports the bull-case target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |