Bullfrog AI Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Technology Beta (adjusted)-1.48 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $11.6M Enterprise Value $4.8M Shares Outstanding 16.5M diluted Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BullFrog AI is a micro-cap, pre-commercial digital biopharmaceutical company leveraging its proprietary bfLEAP™ and bfARENAS™ platforms to streamline drug discovery and clinical development. While the company achieved a major milestone in March 2026 by signing its first commercial feasibility agreement with a top-5 global pharmaceutical company for major depressive disorder, it remains in an early stage of commercialization with zero revenue in Q1 2026. Recent capital raises have successfully extended its cash runway into late 2027 and resolved its stockholders' equity deficiency, but the company faces an impending August 10, 2026 deadline to resolve its Nasdaq minimum bid price deficiency. Given the high dilution risk from its active ATM and equity line facilities, combined with going concern warnings, a Hold recommendation is advised until the company demonstrates a clear path to recurring, milestone-driven commercial revenue and resolves its listing overhang. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The feasibility study fails to produce valuable targets, or the partner declines to extend the collaboration. The company is unable to maintain its Nasdaq listing organically and is forced to execute a highly dilutive reverse stock split. Continued reliance on the Lincoln Park ELOC and ATM facilities further dilutes existing shareholders, while quarterly cash burn depletes reserves faster than anticipated. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its feasibility study with the top-5 pharmaceutical partner, leading to a multi-project expansion or milestone payments by late 2026. It manages to resolve its Nasdaq minimum bid price deficiency, potentially through a reverse stock split if organic price recovery does not materialize. Operating cash burn remains controlled at approximately $1.5 million to $1.7 million per quarter, supported by its lean operating model and existing cash reserves. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Bullfrog AI centers on the commercial validation and scaling of its proprietary bfLEAP platform. This is highlighted by its first major commercial feasibility agreement signed in March 2026 with a top 5 global pharmaceutical company to identify novel drug targets in major depressive disorder (MDD). If the company successfully converts this and other strategic collaborations (such as its sales partnership with Sygnature Discovery) into milestone payments, long-term royalties, and expanded R&D contracts, it could drive dramatic revenue inflection. Additionally, recent financings have extended its operational runway into late 2027 and restored compliance with Nasdaq's minimum stockholders' equity requirement, providing the necessary financial stability to execute its AI-driven drug discovery strategy. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |