Builders Firstsource Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.28 Intrinsic Value $45.43median of 5 methods · middle span $19-$93based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $57.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.2B Enterprise Value $10.7B Shares Outstanding 107.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Builders FirstSource remains positioned to generate positive free cash flow and productivity savings through the housing downturn, but the near-term operating trend warrants caution. Second-quarter 2026 net sales fell 8.8%, core organic sales declined 7.0%, adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 8.5%, and net leverage reached 3.6x. Management consequently reduced its 2026 outlook to $14.0-$14.8 billion of net sales and a 7.1%-8.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. The cash-flow outlook and cost initiatives provide downside support, while a durable reacceleration requires improved housing demand, stabilization of organic sales, and balance-sheet deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$80.71 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $61.0025% Housing starts and repair-and-remodel activity weaken beyond management's assumptions, pushing sales or adjusted EBITDA margin below the revised guidance floors. Further gross-margin compression and weak cash conversion prevent meaningful deleveraging from the second-quarter 3.6x net-debt-to-LTM-adjusted-EBITDA level. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.7155% Matches the consensus meanWeak housing affordability and softer demand persist, leaving 2026 performance within management's revised $14.0-$14.8 billion net-sales and 7.1%-8.1% adjusted-EBITDA-margin ranges. Productivity savings partly offset volume pressure, and free cash flow remains positive, but leverage and reduced operating leverage constrain near-term upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0020% Housing demand stabilizes sooner than management's cautious second-half assumptions, allowing results to approach the upper ends of the revised 2026 sales and margin ranges. The company realizes at least the high end of its $50-$70 million productivity-savings objective, restores operating leverage, and preserves the $0.4-$0.5 billion free-cash-flow outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |