BT Brands Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.67 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.86Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $11.5M Enterprise Value $11.9M Shares Outstanding 6.2M diluted Moat Rating None All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BT Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: BTBD) is a small-cap restaurant operator that recently terminated its highly anticipated, transformational merger with unmanned-aerial-vehicle company Aero Velocity Inc. due to the SEC registration statement not being declared effective by the contractual deadline of April 30, 2026. Following the termination, BT Brands has reverted to its core focus of operating its regional quick-service and casual dining portfolio (including Burger Time, Dairy Queen, Keegan's Seafood Grille, Pie In The Sky, and Schnitzel Haus) and managing its 40.7% stake in Bagger Dave's. While core restaurant operations showed turnaround progress in fiscal 2025 with a 138% increase in restaurant-level EBITDA to $1.7 million, the company faces near-term headwinds. These include the sudden resignation of its CFO and Chairman Kenneth Brimmer effective May 26, 2026, persistent material weaknesses in internal controls, ongoing lease litigation, and recent investment losses on marketable securities. Given the collapse of the merger and leadership transition, a Hold recommendation is warranted until a permanent CFO is appointed and a clear organic or inorganic growth strategy is established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.8515% Burger Time volumes continue to soften, and inflationary pressures on labor and occupancy further compress restaurant operating margins. The lack of a permanent CFO delays financial reporting and prolongs material weaknesses, while adverse outcomes in the Village Bier Garten litigation lead to significant cash outflows. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.2560% The company focuses on stabilizing its core restaurant operations, improving store-level margins, and resolving outstanding litigation. Revenue remains relatively flat or experiences modest declines due to unit closures, while restaurant-level EBITDA remains positive. The company successfully recruits a new CFO and begins to address its internal control weaknesses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2.5025% The company successfully stabilizes its core restaurant operations, improves store-level margins, and resolves outstanding litigation. It successfully recruits a qualified permanent CFO, resolving internal control weaknesses. Furthermore, it successfully executes its strategic initiatives, including the exit of Bagger Dave's and potential high-value mergers or acquisitions within or outside the food service industry. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |