BRP Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRecreational Vehicles Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $55.30median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$98based on filings through 31 Jan 2026 Market Price $56.12Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4B Enterprise Value $6.1B Shares Outstanding 73.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BRP Inc. (DOO) demonstrated strong operational execution in Q1 FY27, beating analyst expectations with a 29.5% revenue increase driven by robust off-road vehicle (ORV) and personal watercraft (PWC) shipments. However, the company faces significant near-term headwinds from shifting global tariff policies, which prompted a material downgrade to its full-year FY27 profitability guidance. While BRP's premium brand equity, market share gains in ORV, and strong free cash flow generation support its long-term outlook, near-term earnings pressure and tariff uncertainties justify a cautious Hold stance until there is greater clarity on macroeconomic conditions and the effectiveness of tariff mitigation measures. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$68.15 Mean target$71.12 High · most bullish analyst$74.69 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.15 Tariff headwinds intensify beyond the guided CA$500–CA$550 million range, and mitigation measures prove less effective. A broader macroeconomic slowdown further dampens consumer discretionary spending, causing North American powersports retail sales to decline sharply and leading to elevated dealer inventory levels and margin compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $71.12 Matches the consensus meanBRP navigates the challenging tariff environment with its CA$200 million mitigation plan, delivering full-year FY27 revenues and normalized EPS within its revised guidance ranges (revenue of CA$9.125B–CA$9.375B and normalized EPS of CA$3.00–CA$3.50). Retail sales remain soft but stable, and the company continues to generate solid free cash flow to support its dividend and selective share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $74.69 BRP successfully mitigates tariff impacts through pricing power and supply chain adjustments, while sustaining market share gains in the high-margin ORV segment. North American retail demand recovers faster than expected, leading to a rapid normalization of dealer inventories and driving operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |