Brown-Forman Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value $49.97median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$52based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $26.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 88% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+88%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.2B Enterprise Value $14B Shares Outstanding 453.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brown-Forman enters fiscal 2027 with durable brands, strong cash generation, a long dividend-growth record, and identifiable growth engines in ready-to-drink products and emerging markets. Those merits are balanced by approximately flat organic sales guidance, an expected 3% to 5% organic operating-income decline, weakness in core Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and tequila, and difficult developed-market demand. The balanced evidence supports a Hold pending proof that innovation, restructuring benefits, and U.S. distribution changes can restore profitable organic growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Developed-market consumption remains weak, declines in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and tequila persist, and trade or cost pressures overwhelm restructuring benefits, causing organic sales to contract and organic operating income to fall beyond the company's guidance range. Base CaseCentral scenario Results broadly follow company guidance: fiscal 2027 organic net sales remain approximately flat and organic operating income declines 3% to 5% as restructuring and distribution benefits only partly offset weak beverage-alcohol demand and cost pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario Innovation led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry, continued ready-to-drink and emerging-market momentum, U.S. route-to-market benefits, and restructuring savings collectively produce results above the approximately flat organic-sales outlook and limit operating-income pressure. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |