Brown & Brown Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)0.72 Intrinsic Value $89.06median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $61.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.7B Enterprise Value $27.5B Shares Outstanding 359M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brown & Brown's second-quarter 2026 headline growth remained strong, with total revenue up 30.4% and adjusted EBITDAC up 27.0%, supported substantially by acquisitions. Underlying performance was less compelling: consolidated Organic Revenue declined 0.7%, Specialty Distribution Organic Revenue declined 3.5%, and adjusted EBITDAC margin fell to 35.7% from 36.7%. Organic Revenue with Contingents remained positive at 0.7%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $1.07. The resulting view is balanced: Accession provides greater scale and potential integration benefits, but evidence of durable organic-growth recovery and margin stabilization is needed. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$76.44 High · most bullish analyst$90.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.0026% Organic weakness persists for multiple quarters, catastrophe-property pricing pressure continues in Specialty Distribution, and integration or technology spending prevents anticipated operating leverage. Higher acquisition-related debt and interest expense would then reduce flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $76.4456% Matches the consensus meanAcquisition-driven revenue and adjusted earnings growth continue, but organic growth recovers only gradually and the adjusted EBITDAC margin remains near its second-quarter 2026 level while Accession is integrated. This is the modal scenario. Bull CaseUpside scenario $90.0018% Accession integration benefits and expense leverage materialize while consolidated and Specialty Distribution organic growth return to positive territory. Continued favorable contingent commissions and successful retention of acquired customer relationships support renewed margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |