Broadstone Net Lease Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Broadstone Net Lease Inc

BNLNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Diversified

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $16.23median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $18.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.9B

Enterprise Value $6.6B

Shares Outstanding 200.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) is a diversified net lease REIT that has successfully executed a strategic pivot toward industrial-focused and mission-critical properties. The company delivered a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat, characterized by 5.6% year-over-year AFFO growth, 2.8% same-store rent growth, and 100% rent collection. BNL's robust build-to-suit pipeline—including a newly announced 15-year lease development for Tesla in Las Vegas—provides highly visible, accretive growth. However, the stock is currently trading near its fair value range, with its enterprise value reflecting a premium to invested capital that aligns closely with its justified economic profit. Given its smaller scale relative to industry giants and a higher cost of capital (BBB credit rating), the upside remains capped, making it a solid income-generating hold rather than an aggressive buy at current levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$23.70

High · most bullish analyst$26.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent macroeconomic headwinds and elevated interest rates squeeze BNL's investment spreads, slowing down acquisition volumes. Tenant credit profiles deteriorate, leading to unexpected bankruptcies or lease defaults that trigger the company's 75 bps lost-rent assumption. Delays in the build-to-suit pipeline defer projected revenue, causing AFFO to land at the bottom of or below the guided range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

BNL successfully executes its 2026 investment guidance of $500M to $625M, anchored by its high-yielding build-to-suit pipeline. Portfolio occupancy remains above 99%, and contractual rent escalations support steady same-store rental growth of 2.0% to 2.5%. The company achieves its full-year 2026 AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share, maintaining its secure dividend yield of approximately 5.6% with a conservative payout ratio of ~75%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong operational execution with 99.8% occupancy and 100% rent collection in Q1 2026.
Robust, high-yielding build-to-suit pipeline providing visible organic growth independent of volatile equity markets.
Attractive and sustainable dividend yield of ~5.6% supported by a conservative AFFO payout ratio of ~75%.
Successful portfolio repositioning toward mission-critical industrial assets, reducing exposure to volatile retail and office sectors.

Key Investment Risks

Smaller scale relative to industry giants, resulting in a higher cost of capital (BBB credit rating) and lower operating efficiency.
Exposure to lower-credit or non-investment-grade tenants, requiring ongoing credit monitoring to prevent lost rent.
Sensitivity to elevated interest rates, which can compress investment spreads and limit accretive acquisition opportunities.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant spike in tenant defaults or bankruptcies that exceeds the company's 75 bps lost-rent assumption.
Severe delays or cost overruns in major build-to-suit developments that impair projected yields.
A prolonged increase in the cost of debt or equity capital that completely erodes the economic spread on new investments.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.