Broadcom Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Broadcom Inc.

AVGONASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.31

Intrinsic Value $480.80median of 6 methods · middle span $261-$3,366based on filings through 2 Aug 2026

Market Price $343.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.6T

Enterprise Value $1.7T

Shares Outstanding 4.9B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date9 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend22 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Broadcom enters its imminent Q3 FY2026 report with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 revenue increased 48% year over year to $22.187 billion, AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion and increased 143%, adjusted EBITDA represented 69% of revenue, and free cash flow was $10.262 billion. Management guided Q3 revenue to approximately $29.4 billion and AI semiconductor revenue to $16.0 billion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets45 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$215.88

Mean target$527.88

High · most bullish analyst$675.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$215.8818%

Q3 revenue or AI semiconductor revenue falls below management's expectations because hyperscaler deployment timing shifts, customer demand proves more concentrated or volatile than expected, or outsourced supply constraints impede delivery. A simultaneous adjusted EBITDA margin shortfall would indicate weaker operating leverage and materially reduce confidence in the growth thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$527.8858%

Matches the consensus mean

Broadcom delivers approximately $29.4 billion of Q3 revenue, approximately $16.0 billion of AI semiconductor revenue, and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 68%. Infrastructure software remains a stabilizing contributor while AI semiconductors drive most incremental growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$675.0024%

Broadcom exceeds its $29.4 billion Q3 revenue guidance and $16.0 billion AI semiconductor expectation as custom accelerators and AI networking scale faster than anticipated, while adjusted EBITDA margin remains near or above guidance. Continued infrastructure-software growth and strong cash generation would reinforce the durability of the combined semiconductor and software model.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion, increased 143% year over year, and was expected by management to rise to $16.0 billion in Q3.
Q2 consolidated revenue increased 48% to $22.187 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $15.244 billion, and free cash flow reached $10.262 billion.
Infrastructure software generated $7.178 billion of Q2 revenue and grew 9% year over year, providing diversification alongside the faster-growing semiconductor business.

Key Investment Risks

AI semiconductor growth depends on the timing and volume of significant customer demand, including custom-accelerator and networking deployments.
Broadcom depends on contract manufacturing, an outsourced supply chain, and a limited number of suppliers, creating potential delivery and capacity constraints.
Significant indebtedness and the need to sustain demand for infrastructure-software and virtualization products could reduce financial and strategic flexibility if operating momentum weakens.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.