Brixmor Property Group Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $22.52median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.5B Enterprise Value $13.6B Shares Outstanding 308M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Next ex-dividend2 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brixmor entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 same-property NOI increased 5.8%, comparable-space leasing spreads were 19.1%, small-shop occupancy reached a record 92.6%, and signed-but-not-yet-commenced annualized base rent reached a record $71.2 million. Management consequently increased its 2026 same-property NOI outlook and narrowed FFO guidance. The offset is that a 440-basis-point leased-to-billed occupancy gap leaves execution and commencement timing important, while trailing net principal debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.4x. The conclusion is an operational Hold rather than a price-anchored valuation call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$35.44 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.0018% Tenant distress pushes uncollectible revenue above the company's 0.85% guidance ceiling, rent commencements are delayed, and same-property NOI or FFO falls below the lower ends of guidance. Weaker project returns or leverage above the reported 5.4x trailing level would further constrain external growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.4458% Matches the consensus meanBrixmor delivers within its 2026 guidance ranges as rent commencements, positive leasing spreads and redevelopment contributions offset normal tenant-credit and financing pressures. Leverage remains near the reported 5.4x trailing level. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.0024% Leasing demand remains strong, the $71.2 million signed-but-not-yet-commenced rent pipeline converts on schedule, and reinvestment projects deliver approximately their stated 10% expected incremental NOI yield. Same-property NOI and FFO finish near the upper ends of the company's 5.00%-5.75% and $2.35-$2.37 guidance ranges, respectively. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |