Bristow Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bristow Group Inc

VTOLNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)1.14

Intrinsic Value $38.96median of 5 methods · middle span $31-$70based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $40.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.2B

Enterprise Value $1.6B

Shares Outstanding 30.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bristow Group Inc. (NYSE: VTOL) is positioned at a major financial and operational inflection point in 2026. As the world's largest offshore helicopter operator, the company is capitalizing on a multi-year expansion cycle in Offshore Energy Services (OES) driven by robust deepwater drilling activity and successful contract repricing at up to 25% higher rates. Concurrently, its Government Services (GS) segment is scaling rapidly with high-margin, long-duration search and rescue (SAR) contracts (such as the new Ireland SAR contract), which are expected to double the segment's operating income in 2026. With capital expenditure hurdles clearing and a successfully refinanced balance sheet extending debt maturities to 2033, Bristow is poised to deliver substantial free cash flow and robust margin expansion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$64.33

High · most bullish analyst$70.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$56.0015%

A sharp macroeconomic slowdown dampens offshore oil and gas drilling activity, leading to lower helicopter utilization rates. Operational delays in the UKSAR2G transition or prolonged supply chain bottlenecks for heavy helicopter parts could elevate maintenance costs and delay the anticipated margin expansion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$64.3360%

Matches the consensus mean

Bristow successfully delivers on its affirmed 2026 guidance, with revenues reaching the midpoint of $1.58B-$1.69B and adjusted EBITDA growing ~25% to around $310 million. The GS segment successfully transitions legacy contracts, and operating margins expand to approximately 18% as transition costs invert into cash-flow drivers.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$70.0025%

Accelerated offshore energy exploration and rapid adoption of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) solutions drive OES contract renewals above the 25% rate increase threshold. The seamless integration of new heavy aircraft and faster-than-expected deleveraging allows the company to aggressively execute its $125 million share repurchase program, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst estimates.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market share in critical offshore energy vertical flight logistics with high switching barriers.
Strong revenue anchor from long-duration, fixed-rate government search and rescue (SAR) contracts.
Favorable pricing power with legacy OES contracts renewing at up to 25% higher rates due to global heavy helicopter shortages.
Deleveraged balance sheet with net leverage down to 1.6x at end-2025 and debt maturities extended to 2031-2033.

Key Investment Risks

High capital intensity requiring continuous fleet modernization and heavy maintenance spending.
Sensitivity of the core OES segment to global oil and gas capital expenditure cycles.
Short-term margin pressure from transition and mobilization costs on new government contracts.
Exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations and regulatory compliance across more than 15 countries of operation.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material drop in offshore drilling activity leading to widespread contract cancellations or failure to renew legacy OES contracts.
Significant operational or safety incidents that compromise the company's 'Target Zero' safety record and damage relationships with key oil majors or government entities.
Failure to achieve the projected $70M-$80M adjusted operating income in the Government Services segment due to contract execution delays.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.