Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co

BMYNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryPharmaceuticals

Beta (adjusted)0.49

Intrinsic Value $77.58median of 5 methods · middle span $57-$79based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $61.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $125.5B

Enterprise Value $159.7B

Shares Outstanding 2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bristol Myers Squibb has improving operating momentum, reflected in raised 2026 revenue guidance, a Growth Portfolio representing 55% of 2025 revenue, seven Growth Portfolio assets annualizing above $1 billion, and a broad pipeline spanning 49 compounds. These strengths are balanced by material concentration in Eliquis and Opdivo, continuing exposure to product-exclusivity losses, and the inherent uncertainty of clinical development.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.00

Mean target$66.21

High · most bullish analyst$80.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$40.0019%

Full-year revenue falls below the $49.0B guidance floor as legacy-product erosion outpaces newer-product growth, while clinical or regulatory setbacks reduce the value of the 49-compound pipeline.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$66.2157%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue remains within the company's $49.0B-$50.0B 2026 guidance range, Growth Portfolio products continue to offset—but do not eliminate—legacy-product pressure, and pipeline progress is mixed but sufficient to preserve long-term optionality.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$80.0024%

Bristol Myers Squibb reaches the upper end of its raised 2026 revenue guidance, newer medicines sustain strong adoption, and multiple late-stage or registration-stage programs convert into approvals. This would strengthen confidence that the Growth Portfolio and pipeline can offset legacy-product erosion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $49.0B-$50.0B after reporting second-quarter 2026 results, indicating stronger portfolio momentum than contemplated at the beginning of the year.
The Growth Portfolio represented 55% of 2025 revenue, with seven Growth Portfolio assets annualizing above $1 billion, providing an increasingly diversified base for replacing mature products.
As of July 30, 2026, the pipeline contained 49 compounds across more than 40 disease areas, including multiple Phase 3 and registration-stage opportunities.

Key Investment Risks

Product concentration remains material: 2025 revenue from Eliquis and Opdivo was $14.4B and $10.0B, respectively, against total company revenue of $48.2B.
Patent expiry, loss of market exclusivity, generic or biosimilar entry, and regulated pricing can cause rapid declines in established-product revenue.
Clinical development is costly and uncertain; the company explicitly states that testing novel compounds is complex and has no guaranteed results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.