Brinker International Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $205.83median of 6 methods · middle span $70-$476based on filings through 24 Jun 2026 Market Price $194.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.1B Enterprise Value $8.4B Shares Outstanding 44.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Mar 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brinker International is executing a highly successful operational turnaround under CEO Kevin Hochman, driven by Chili's 'earned value credibility' and the '3 For Me' platform. Chili's has achieved its 20th consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales growth, consistently outperforming the casual dining industry. Despite strong volume-driven margin expansion and market share gains, the stock trades at a reasonable forward P/E multiple of ~13.8x, representing a discount to historical averages and high-quality peers. Balance sheet risk is actively being addressed through revolving credit repayment and planned high-cost debt refinancing. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$139.00 Mean target$260.05 High · most bullish analyst$310.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $139.0020% Severe macroeconomic slowdown pressures middle-income consumer discretionary spending, leading to negative traffic trends. Intense promotional wars in the casual dining sector compress margins, while persistent high beef inflation cannot be fully offset by pricing without damaging the value brand image. Base CaseCentral scenario $260.0555% Matches the consensus meanChili's maintains steady same-store sales growth of 3-5% while lapping high prior-year comps. Operating margins hold stable around 9.5% to 10% as menu pricing actions offset beef and labor inflation. Management successfully refinances the $350 million high-cost notes in FY2027 and continues share repurchases at a steady pace. Bull CaseUpside scenario $310.0025% Chili's continues to capture significant market share from both quick-service and casual dining competitors due to its superior value proposition. Volume-driven traffic growth accelerates, offsetting commodity headwinds. Successful stabilization of Maggiano's and faster-than-expected international franchise expansion drive multiple expansion toward premium peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |