BrightView Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Business Services Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $5.13median of 5 methods · middle span $3-$13based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $940.8M Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 94.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BrightView Holdings is demonstrating clear operational progress under its 'One BrightView' transformation strategy led by CEO Dale Asplund. The company's core Land Maintenance segment returned to positive organic growth of 4% in Q2 FY2026, marking a critical inflection point. However, while top-line momentum is building and debt maturities have been successfully extended to 2033, near-term profitability remains constrained by heavy investments in the salesforce and seasonal headwinds. At current valuation levels, the stock appears fairly valued, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile as the market monitors the execution of its long-term 2030 targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$15.45 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0020% Salesforce investments fail to yield expected contract volumes, leading to margin compression. Additionally, a decline in Development Services projects accelerates, and severe weather anomalies disrupt service schedules, causing the company to miss its FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.4555% Matches the consensus meanBrightView continues to execute its turnaround strategy, achieving its raised FY2026 revenue guidance of $2.745 billion to $2.795 billion and meeting its Adjusted EBITDA target of $363 million to $377 million. Land maintenance growth stabilizes in the 2% to 3% range, and the company gradually deleverages, keeping the stock aligned with consensus expectations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.0025% The accelerated salesforce expansion drives higher-than-expected organic land maintenance contract wins, while the transition to fixed-price snow contracts successfully mitigates winter weather volatility. Margin expansion exceeds expectations due to enhanced route density and operational efficiencies, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |