Brightstar Lottery PLC Dossier - Source-backed chat

Brightstar Lottery PLC

BRSLNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryGambling

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $9.45median of 5 methods · middle span $9-$14based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $9.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.8B

Enterprise Value $4.5B

Shares Outstanding 197M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Brightstar Lottery PLC (formerly International Game Technology PLC) has successfully completed its transformation into a high-margin, pure-play global lottery leader following the divestiture of its Gaming & Digital business to Apollo Global Management. While Q1 2026 results faced temporary optical headwinds from the U.K. transition and flat U.S. same-store sales, the company's underlying profitability remains exceptionally robust, highlighted by a 15% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $287 million (representing a 48.9% margin). Backed by a highly resilient, contract-driven business model, strong secular tailwinds in iLottery (+30% global wager growth), and a clear path to deleveraging post the final Italy Lotto payment, Brightstar represents a compelling value proposition. Trading at a significant discount to its historical multiples and offering an attractive dividend yield of approximately 7.9%, the stock is well-positioned for re-rating as cash flow visibility improves in the second half of 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.20

Mean target$16.53

High · most bullish analyst$21.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$12.60

Prolonged stagnation in U.S. land-based same-store sales due to lack of major jackpot activity and intense competition from alternative digital gaming formats. Regulatory bottlenecks delay the approval and rollout of new iLottery content in key jurisdictions. Higher-than-expected service revenue amortization and inflationary pressures permanently compress EBITDA margins, keeping leverage elevated above 3.0x and limiting capital return capacity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$16.53

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the 2028 strategic plan, with organic revenue growth averaging 5% annually and Adjusted EBITDA reaching the targeted $1.30 billion by 2028. Temporary headwinds from the U.K. transition and New Jersey LMA shortfall annualize and fade by late 2026. The company successfully manages the final Italy Lotto license payment in Q2 2026, with leverage peaking at 3.5x before declining. Regular quarterly dividends of $0.23 per share are maintained, supported by stable cash flows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$21.00

Rapid acceleration of iLottery adoption across North America and Europe, combined with faster-than-expected synergy capture from the OPTiMa efficiency program. Strong multi-state jackpot activity in the U.S. drives high-margin flow-through, while international joint ventures (such as the newly launched São Paulo lottery in Brazil) contribute immediate high-margin equity income. Leverage falls rapidly back toward 2.0x, prompting aggressive share buybacks under the ongoing $500 million program.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pure-play lottery business model with high barriers to entry, long-term government-linked contracts, and low macroeconomic sensitivity.
Industry-leading profitability with Adjusted EBITDA margins expanding toward 49% driven by the OPTiMa efficiency program.
Strong secular growth drivers in the digital lottery space, with global iLottery wagers growing at 30% year-over-year.
Substantial capital return profile, including a regular quarterly dividend yielding ~7.9% and an active share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Short-term leverage pressure and optical cash flow headwinds associated with the final Italy Lotto payment in Q2 2026.
Exposure to contract renewal risks and regulatory changes across major lottery jurisdictions.
Dependence on unpredictable multi-state jackpot cycles (Powerball/Mega Millions) to drive high-margin retail sales volume.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to secure key contract renewals or loss of market share in core jurisdictions like Italy or major U.S. states.
EBITDA margins falling below 43% due to persistent operational inefficiencies or failure of the OPTiMa program.
Net debt leverage remaining above 3.5x past the end of fiscal year 2026, indicating structural cash flow deterioration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.