Brighthouse Financial Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Life Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $39.31median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $50.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value −$1.1B Shares Outstanding 57.9M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Brighthouse Financial is currently in a transitional phase as it prepares to be acquired by an affiliate of Aquarian Capital LLC in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $4.1 billion. Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, which was approved by stockholders on February 12, 2026, common shareholders will receive $70.00 per share in cash at closing. The stock is currently trading near the buyout price, with the remaining discount reflecting regulatory and completion risks. Consequently, the investment thesis is heavily anchored on the successful closing of this take-private transaction, which is expected in 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$65.00 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.00 The merger faces unexpected regulatory hurdles or fails to close, forcing Brighthouse to continue as a public entity. In this scenario, the stock would likely experience a sharp correction back toward its unaffected trading levels, and investors would again face the high earnings volatility associated with its legacy variable annuity book. Base CaseCentral scenario $65.00 Matches the consensus meanThe transaction proceeds as planned, with the stock trading in a tight range close to the $70.00 buyout price. Core operations remain stable, supported by a strong preliminary Combined RBC ratio of 456% and robust sales of Shield annuities, despite GAAP earnings volatility driven by derivative hedging results. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.00 The merger with Aquarian Capital closes smoothly in 2026 without regulatory delays, allowing investors to realize the full $70.00 per share cash consideration, representing a significant premium over the unaffected pre-announcement price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |