Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc

BAERNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryDiversified Support Services

Beta (adjusted)1.79

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $40.1M

Enterprise Value $221.1M

Shares Outstanding 57.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) is a premier operator in the highly specialized aerial firefighting sector, boasting a unique fleet of Super Scooper amphibious aircraft. The company is poised for strong double-digit top-line growth in FY26, supported by a structural increase in federal and state wildfire suppression budgets and a lengthening wildfire season. While Q1 2026 results reflected typical seasonal weakness and high winter maintenance costs, the reiteration of full-year guidance ($135M to $145M in revenue and $55M to $60M in Adjusted EBITDA) underscores management's confidence in the upcoming peak fire season. Despite high leverage and seasonal cash burn, the company's critical asset base, exclusive government contracts, and newly expanded MRO capabilities present a compelling growth profile with significant valuation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$3.35

Mean target$4.12

High · most bullish analyst$4.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.8020%

An unusually wet summer leads to historically low wildfire activity, severely limiting flight hours and deployment. High fixed maintenance costs and heavy debt service obligations strain liquidity, forcing dilutive equity financing or restrictive covenant negotiations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.5050%

Wildfire activity aligns with historical averages, allowing Bridger to achieve its reiterated FY26 guidance of $135M to $145M in revenue and $55M to $60M in Adjusted EBITDA. Steady contract execution under the newly awarded 5-year DOI Alaska contract and stable fleet operations support a gradual re-rating toward peer multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$5.0030%

An exceptionally severe and early wildfire season drives maximum utilization of the Super Scooper fleet. Rapid international expansion of the Spanish Super Scoopers and accelerated high-margin MRO contract wins push FY26 revenues and EBITDA well above the high end of guidance, leading to rapid deleveraging and multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Critical and highly specialized asset base with a fleet of eight Super Scoopers offering high-precision suppression and rapid water sourcing.
Favorable secular tailwinds driven by lengthening wildfire seasons and rising federal funding for wildfire suppression.
Strong revenue visibility supported by long-term government contracts, including the newly secured 5-year DOI Alaska transportation contract.
Incremental high-margin revenue potential from the newly expanded Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) division.

Key Investment Risks

High revenue concentration in the peak summer fire season, making financial performance highly dependent on unpredictable weather patterns.
Substantial debt load and high interest expenses that pressure net profitability and restrict free cash flow generation.
Operational risks, including potential aircraft damage, maintenance delays, or pilot shortages during critical deployment windows.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A structural shift in government procurement away from private aerial firefighting contractors.
Severe operational accidents resulting in the loss or prolonged grounding of multiple Super Scooper aircraft.
A breach of financial covenants under existing debt agreements that triggers accelerated repayment demands.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.