Braskem SA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCommodity Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $617.7M Shares Outstanding 796.2M diluted Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Apr 2022 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Braskem SA remains a dominant player in the thermoplastic resins market, but continues to face significant headwinds from high leverage, commodity cyclicality, and ongoing liabilities related to the Alagoas geological event. While the company's valuation is at historically low levels, a structural re-rating is highly dependent on resolving corporate governance uncertainties—specifically the divestment of Novonor's stake and potential new shareholder agreements with Petrobras. In the short term, a strong liquidity runway mitigates immediate dilution risks, justifying a Hold stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$1.50 Mean target$3.40 High · most bullish analyst$6.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is triggered by prolonged weakness in petrochemical spreads, further escalation of Alagoas-related liabilities, and failure to resolve the shareholder overhang, leading to severe cash drain and potential credit rating downgrades. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes a gradual stabilization of petrochemical spreads and a slow resolution of the Alagoas liabilities. Corporate governance transitions progress without major disruptions, allowing the market to slowly price in reduced risk perception. Bull CaseUpside scenario Braskem's bull case centers on a cyclical recovery in the global petrochemical sector, driven by feedstock shortages that push up polyolefin spreads and prices. This is supported by a strategic ownership shift to creditor banks and Petrobras, which aligns incentives for operational turnaround, deleveraging, and potential EBITDA recovery toward $2 billion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |