Brasilagro Companhia Brasileira De Propriedade Agricola ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryAgricultural Products Beta (adjusted)0.37 Intrinsic Value $2.17median of 4 methods · middle span $1-$4based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $3.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $341.7M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 99.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Oct 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BrasilAgro is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in agricultural commodities and adverse climate conditions (such as El Niño), which heavily impacted its 9M FY2025/2026 results, leading to a net loss of BRL 76 million. Despite these operational headwinds, the company maintains a highly resilient business model that combines agricultural production with real estate development (buying, improving, and selling farmland). Its strong cash position of BRL 887 million and proven ability to execute high-return land sales (such as the Paraguay land sale with a 23% IRR in BRL) provide a solid buffer. However, near-term catalysts are lacking, and valuation multiples do not fully discount bottom-cycle risks, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.7020% Severe El Niño weather patterns continue to disrupt crop yields in Northeast Brazil, while global oversupply keeps crop prices depressed. High financing costs and elevated input expenses persist, leading to prolonged net losses and cash flow strain for upcoming planting seasons. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.8750% Commodity prices remain sideways with gradual stabilization. Sugarcane productivity recovers slowly from historical lows. The company continues to execute opportunistic land sales to support cash flows, while maintaining its robust hedging program to protect margins. Bull CaseUpside scenario $5.3030% A rapid recovery in soy, corn, and sugarcane prices combined with successful execution of high-margin farmland sales. The company leverages its technology investments (BRL 12 million in IoT and telemetry) to significantly boost crop yields and mitigate climate impacts, returning to strong profitability. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |