BP plc ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)0.19 Intrinsic Value $29.58median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$43based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $43.99Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $113.3B Enterprise Value $131.3B Shares Outstanding 2.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BP's second-quarter results demonstrated substantial earnings and cash-generation leverage to stronger commodity realizations and refining margins, while net debt fell by about $3.1 billion sequentially. The counterweight is execution risk: upstream reliability, production, refinery throughput and refining availability all declined from the first quarter, and management itself acknowledged inconsistent historical delivery. The portfolio simplification, upstream project pipeline, cost reductions and higher dividend offer potential value, but the ADR price displayed by BP shortly before this assessment already reflects a meaningful portion of the near-term recovery. A Hold recommendation is therefore appropriate pending evidence that improved cash flow can coexist with restored operating reliability and sustained deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$37.00 Mean target$47.60 High · most bullish analyst$64.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $37.0022% Commodity realizations and refining margins weaken while reliability remains below historical levels. Divestment execution disappoints, net debt remains above the end-2027 target range and weaker cash conversion constrains shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario $47.6058% Matches the consensus meanCommodity conditions remain supportive but normalize from the unusually strong second quarter. BP makes measured progress on portfolio simplification and net debt while operational metrics recover only gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $64.0020% Operational reliability recovers, refining availability moves back above 96%, high-return upstream projects progress without material delay, and divestments accelerate deleveraging. Strong cash conversion and continued dividend growth produce a re-rating from the issuer-displayed ADR price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |