Boyd Group Services Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $22.17median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $78.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 72% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $1.3B Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Boyd Group Services Inc. is a dominant consolidator in the highly fragmented North American auto collision repair industry. Despite recent stock price weakness driven by cyclical headwinds (such as rising insurance premiums causing claim deferrals and elevated integration costs), Boyd's underlying operational engine remains highly robust. The transformative acquisition of Joe Hudson's Collision Center has expanded its footprint by 33% year-over-year, while the company's Project 360 cost-transformation initiative is successfully driving margin expansion. With same-store sales returning to positive territory and pro forma leverage on track to decline, Boyd is well-positioned to achieve its ambitious 2029 strategic goals of $5 billion in revenue and $700 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$137.00 Mean target$157.94 High · most bullish analyst$181.82 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $137.0015% Persistent insurance premium inflation continues to suppress repairable claim volumes, keeping same-store sales growth below the historical average. Integration bottlenecks or labor shortages in the technician market delay the realization of Joe Hudson's synergies and Project 360 savings, keeping Adjusted EBITDA margins flat near 11.5% to 12.0%. Base CaseCentral scenario $157.9460% Matches the consensus meanBoyd steadily integrates Joe Hudson's locations, achieving the targeted $40 million in synergies by 2028. Project 360 delivers its planned $140 million in cumulative savings by 2029, supporting a gradual expansion of Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 13.5%. Same-store sales growth stabilizes within the 3% to 5% long-term framework as industry conditions normalize. Bull CaseUpside scenario $181.8225% Rapid synergy realization from the Joe Hudson's acquisition combined with accelerated Project 360 cost savings drives Adjusted EBITDA margins past the 14% target ahead of schedule. A swift normalization of insurance premium inflation prompts a strong rebound in repairable claim volumes, pushing same-store sales growth to the high end of the 3% to 5% target range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |