Boyd Gaming Corp Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResorts & Casinos Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value $129.55median of 6 methods · middle span $63-$254based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $66.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 96% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+96%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.8B Enterprise Value $7.1B Shares Outstanding 73.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a highly resilient, regional casino operator with a strong balance sheet and a disciplined capital return program. While near-term headwinds exist in the Las Vegas Locals segment due to construction disruptions at Suncoast and softer destination tourism, the company's core Midwest and South segment continues to deliver robust growth. Trading at a conservative valuation multiple relative to its historical average and peers, Boyd's aggressive share buybacks and consistent dividend increases provide a strong margin of safety and clear catalysts for long-term shareholder value creation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$95.94 High · most bullish analyst$111.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged consumer discretionary spending weakness, persistent softness in Las Vegas destination tourism, and extended construction delays at Suncoast. Increased promotional competition in regional markets could compress property-level margins below 37%, while rising interest rates could increase refinancing costs for its December 2027 debt maturity. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes stable low-single-digit revenue growth driven by the Midwest and South segment, alongside a gradual recovery in the Las Vegas Locals segment as construction disruptions at Suncoast subside by late 2026. Operating margins are expected to remain healthy above 39%, supported by disciplined cost management. The company is projected to maintain its robust capital return pace of $150 million in share repurchases per quarter, leading to significant EPS accretion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |