Boston Beer Co Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryBeverages - Brewers Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $311.02median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $165.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 87% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+87%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 10.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Boston Beer Company (SAM) is navigating a transitional phase characterized by persistent volume declines in its core legacy brands (Twisted Tea, Truly, and Samuel Adams), offset by strong gross margin expansion and rapid growth in its new Sun Cruiser vodka-iced tea brand. While operational efficiencies and procurement savings are successfully driving gross margins toward the 49-50% range, top-line visibility remains low due to intense competition in the hard seltzer and flavored malt beverage categories. Additionally, a massive $212 million non-recurring litigation charge tied to a supplier dispute with Ardagh has severely impacted GAAP profitability in early 2026, though the company's balance sheet remains robust with zero debt and $164.1 million in cash. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$160.00 Mean target$199.85 High · most bullish analyst$295.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects accelerated declines in Truly and Twisted Tea due to market share losses to spirits-based RTD competitors. Sun Cruiser growth slows as the category becomes crowded. Higher freight and commodity costs compress gross margins back below 48%, and the final cash outflow for the Ardagh litigation limits the company's capacity for share buybacks, dragging non-GAAP EPS below $8.50. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes core brands continue to experience low-to-mid single-digit volume declines, while Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard provide moderate offsets. Gross margins remain stable near 49% due to high internal production (95% in Q1 2026) and supply chain optimization. Non-GAAP EPS is expected to land within management's guided range of $8.50 to $10.50, supported by aggressive summer advertising and share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |