Borr Drilling Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Drilling Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $6.99median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $4.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 73% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+73%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $3.5B Shares Outstanding 329.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Mar 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Borr Drilling operates one of the youngest and most modern premium jack-up fleets globally, positioning it well to capture high dayrates in a tightening shallow-water offshore drilling market. However, near-term financial performance has been pressured by operational delays (such as the Odin rig startup in the US Gulf) and elevated interest expenses from its leveraged capital structure. While the company's long-term outlook remains robust due to strong contract coverage (71% for FY 2026) and strategic fleet expansion (including the Noble and Fontis rig acquisitions), the recent Q1 2026 net loss of $29 million and ongoing refinancing maneuvers warrant a cautious Hold stance until operational execution stabilizes and debt optimization is completed. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$4.76 High · most bullish analyst$6.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Geopolitical tensions or a drop in oil prices lead to contract suspensions or cancellations, particularly in the Middle East or Mexico. Operational delays persist, and the company struggles to refinance its high-interest debt, leading to liquidity strain and margin compression. Base CaseCentral scenario The offshore drilling cycle continues its steady recovery, allowing Borr to successfully deploy its newly acquired rigs and maintain technical utilization above 98%. The Odin rig commences operations in late June 2026, contributing to revenue growth in H2 2026. The company successfully completes its $2.035 billion senior secured notes refinancing, optimizing its capital structure and reducing near-term maturity risks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |