BorgWarner Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $38.31median of 6 methods · middle span $35-$50based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $60.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.3B Enterprise Value $13.8B Shares Outstanding 205.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BorgWarner's second-quarter execution was strong: adjusted operating margin reached 11.3%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 17.4% year over year, and free cash flow was USD 492 million. The neutral recommendation reflects a balanced outlook. Cost controls, portfolio awards, and an expanded repurchase authorization support per-share value, but 2026 guidance still anticipates organic sales contraction, weaker weighted light-vehicle markets, and a material Battery Energy Systems sales decline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$62.00 Mean target$79.67 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $62.0024% The bear case occurs if organic sales decline beyond guidance, Battery Energy Systems weakness persists, or lower vehicle production and incremental research spending prevent adjusted operating margin and free cash flow from reaching their guided floors. Under that outcome, weaker cash conversion would also constrain the practical benefit of the expanded repurchase authorization. Base CaseCentral scenario $79.6757% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes results remain broadly within management's 2026 ranges: net sales of USD 14.0 billion to USD 14.3 billion, organic growth of -3.5% to -1.5%, adjusted operating margin of 10.7% to 10.9%, adjusted diluted EPS of USD 5.05 to USD 5.30, and free cash flow of USD 900 million to USD 1,100 million. Margin discipline and repurchases partly offset weak end markets and declining Battery Energy Systems sales. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0019% The bull case requires BorgWarner to sustain its second-quarter margin momentum, exceed the upper end of 2026 adjusted operating-margin and free-cash-flow guidance, and convert its recently announced hybrid, electric-drive, inverter, variable-cam-timing, and transfer-case awards into durable profitable growth. The enlarged repurchase authorization could further improve per-share outcomes if deployed without weakening financial flexibility. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |