Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp

BAHNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConsulting Services

Beta (adjusted)0.57

Intrinsic Value $131.24median of 6 methods · middle span $100-$173based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $70.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 86% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+86%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $8.5B

Enterprise Value $11.9B

Shares Outstanding 118.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is undergoing a fundamental transformation from a legacy, headcount-driven government consultancy into a high-margin, product-focused technology integrator (the "Suits to Swarms" pivot). While the market has heavily penalized the stock due to near-term federal funding delays and a temporary revenue growth reset (guiding 0-4% for FY27), the company's underlying fundamentals remain exceptionally robust. BAH boasts a record backlog of approximately $38 billion, providing immense revenue visibility. Furthermore, its strategic partnerships (such as a $400M initiative with Andreessen Horowitz) position it as the premier gatekeeper for commercial AI, cyber, and deep tech integration into classified national security missions. With the valuation compressed to historically attractive levels (trading around 14-16x P/E compared to prior 30x highs), the risk/reward profile is highly compelling for long-term investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$68.00

Mean target$85.58

High · most bullish analyst$140.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects prolonged federal budget impasses, extended government shutdowns, or intensified regulatory scrutiny following high-profile contract terminations (similar to the IRS data breach incident). These headwinds freeze task order awards, causing a contraction in the funded backlog. Civil segment declines accelerate faster than National Security can offset, leading to a revenue miss below the FY27 floor of $11.2 billion and margin compression due to underutilized talent.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes Booz Allen successfully navigates the choppy federal procurement environment, stabilizing its Civil segment while driving mid-single-digit growth in its core National Security and Defense portfolios. Backlog conversion normalizes as federal appropriations flow, allowing the company to meet the upper end of its FY27 revenue guidance ($11.7 billion) and achieve Adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 11%. Valuation multiples expand moderately as the market recognizes the durability of its high-tech mission integration model.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record backlog of $38 billion and a qualified pipeline of $53 billion, providing strong long-term revenue visibility.
Strategic positioning as a 'Venture Integrator' bridging Silicon Valley commercial tech (e.g., a16z partnership) with classified federal missions.
Attractive capital allocation strategy, including a ~3.2% dividend yield and active share repurchases at compressed valuation multiples.

Key Investment Risks

High customer concentration with 97% of revenues derived from the U.S. Government, exposing the firm to political and budgetary volatility.
Tighter regulatory scrutiny and lower risk tolerance in federal procurement following data security incidents.
Risk of contract cancellations by major federal clients, as evidenced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's decision to cancel contracts with Booz Allen in January 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in the total contract backlog over consecutive quarters.
Failure to stabilize the Civil segment, resulting in double-digit annual declines.
Loss of key classified contract vehicles to more agile national security competitors.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.