Boot Barn Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)1.47 Intrinsic Value $172.54median of 6 methods · middle span $164-$200based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $120.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.7B Enterprise Value $3.5B Shares Outstanding 30.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. continues to demonstrate exceptional execution of its core growth pillars, delivering record fiscal 2026 results with 18% revenue growth and 25% EPS growth. The company's unique niche in western and workwear apparel insulates it from broader fashion industry volatility, while its aggressive store expansion strategy (targeting 1,200 locations over time from 539 currently) provides a long runway for market share capture. Furthermore, the expansion of high-margin exclusive brands (now at 40.8% penetration) provides a structural tailwind to merchandise margins, offsetting near-term occupancy and distribution cost pressures. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$190.00 Mean target$221.50 High · most bullish analyst$282.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A severe macroeconomic downturn dampens consumer discretionary spending, leading to flat or negative same-store sales. Rapid store expansion leads to significant occupancy deleverage, while supply chain disruptions or tariff increases compress gross margins. Base CaseCentral scenario Boot Barn successfully opens 70 new stores in fiscal 2027, maintaining positive same-store sales growth of 2% to 4% and expanding merchandise margins by 50 basis points. The company achieves its guided fiscal 2027 EPS of $8.21 to $8.64, supported by stable consumer demand in core workwear and western categories. Bull CaseUpside scenario Accelerated store expansion combined with rapid exclusive brand penetration toward the 50% long-term target drives significant margin expansion. E-commerce growth continues to outpace brick-and-mortar, leveraging AI-driven marketing and dedicated brand websites to capture digital market share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |