Booking Holdings Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Booking Holdings Inc.

BKNGNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $139.51median of 4 methods · middle span $72-$207based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $160.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $120.4B

Enterprise Value $123.4B

Shares Outstanding 751.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Booking Holdings combines global scale, resilient Q2 execution and a credible long-term growth ambition with a more cautious near-term setup. Q2 2026 gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EPS grew 9%, 8% and 15%, respectively, but management's Q3 outlook indicated moderation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets36 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$188.00

Mean target$237.81

High · most bullish analyst$301.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$188.0021%

The bear case assumes room-night and gross-bookings growth falls below guidance, direct mix declines materially from the disclosed mid-60% range, and connected-trip adoption remains near its current low-double-digit mix.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$237.8155%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Q3 growth moderates near management's disclosed ranges before progressing toward the long-term growth algorithm. The analytical target is $225.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$301.0024%

The bull case assumes gross-bookings and revenue growth returns to or exceeds the company's respective 8% constant-currency ambitions, adjusted EPS growth sustains at least 15%, and increasing direct and connected-trip adoption improves customer economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 execution remained resilient: gross bookings grew 9%, revenue grew 8%, and adjusted EPS grew 15% year over year.
The company has substantial global supply and reach, including approximately 4.7 million accommodation properties across more than 220 countries and territories.
The disclosed long-term ambition targets at least 8% constant-currency growth in both gross bookings and revenue and at least 15% growth in adjusted EPS.

Key Investment Risks

Management's Q3 2026 outlook calls for slower growth, including 3%-5% room-night growth and 4%-6% growth in gross bookings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
B2C direct mix remains in the mid-60% range, leaving meaningful transaction volume outside direct channels and exposing results to customer-acquisition efficiency.
Connected-trip transactions remain only in the low-double-digit percentage range, so a central strategic initiative has not yet become the dominant transaction pathway.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.