Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $3.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.8M Enterprise Value −$6.1M Shares Outstanding 1.6M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Bolt Biotherapeutics is a high-risk, clinical-stage biotechnology company that has undergone a major strategic pivot. Following the discontinuation of its first-generation lead candidate (BDC-1001) in May 2024, the company halved its workforce and focused its remaining resources on its next-generation Boltbody Immune-Stimulating Antibody Conjugate (ISAC), BDC-4182, which targets Claudin 18.2. While preclinical data for BDC-4182 is promising, showing superior potency and immunological memory compared to traditional ADCs, the company's survival and platform validation hinge entirely on the upcoming Phase 1/2 clinical data readout expected in Q3 2026. With a cash runway extending only into 2027 ($23.9M as of March 31, 2026), Bolt represents a binary clinical-stage play, warranting a Hold recommendation until proof-of-concept is established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$41.00 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.50 Initial clinical data for BDC-4182 in Q3 2026 shows poor efficacy or unacceptable systemic toxicity despite step-up dosing. This invalidates the next-generation Boltbody platform, leaving the company with a depleted cash runway, no active clinical programs, and a high risk of liquidation or severe dilutive financing. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.45 The Phase 1/2 dose-escalation trial of BDC-4182 successfully demonstrates a manageable safety profile utilizing step-up dosing and shows early signs of anti-tumor activity in gastric and gastroesophageal cancers. This validates the next-generation ISAC platform, allowing Bolt to secure a strategic partner or raise capital to extend its runway beyond 2027 and reactivate its paused pipeline (BDC-3042, CEA ISAC, PD-L1 ISAC). Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.00 BDC-4182 clinical data in Q3 2026 shows exceptional efficacy and safety, validating the next-generation ISAC platform. This triggers a major licensing deal or acquisition by a large pharmaceutical partner, fully funding the reactivation of the paused pipeline and driving significant valuation upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |